Saturday, August 28, 2010

Robots, how will they look like?

As I looked into my desintegrating copy of "I, Robot" from Isaac Asimov the other day similarities with the smartphone came up.


Years ago, as mobile phones still looked like mobile phones, there was some debate whether it would be usefull to add a camera, an agenda etcetera. I myself was not sure either, I liked my pocket knife but if I would loose it I would loose also my scissors, corkscrew and can opener.
And indeed, a few weeks ago I lost my iPhone and with it my address book, my notes, my books, my camera, my watch and also my phone.

But the decision has been made: the smartphone is a money maker nowadays. (If you are not sure about that take a look at Apple's profits.)

Since many years robots are making cars, milking cows and since short they are communicating with Alzheimer patients (see http://www.parorobots.com/). But they are good at one thing only, they are specialised. And so they will extinct. For two reasons. They are too expensive and there is no demand.

1. The tasks robots perform will extend and will be more sensitive: cows have to be milked, but in future cows will also be checked on deseases during milking. So milk robots have to be more intelligent and have to be able to use more tools. And so they will be more expensive. Too expensive for a farmer. May be a modulair system will last for a while, but the lack off mass production will bankrupt everything in the end.

2. The farmer has not only 100 cows but also a bedridden mother who has to take care of. So, he wants a robot that can milk his cows and help his mother going to the toilet and can make coffee for him. An ordinary milk robot can't do that. So he wants a robot that can perform all tasks humans can perform: a humanoid robot.

Here we see the same development as we have seen with smartphones. And more similarities come up. Unlimited number of apps are available for the smartphone on the internet. The same will happen with robot skills. You just download the skill from the internet into your robot and he can perform the new task. Better, robots will learn tasks by themselfes and by uploading the skill to the internet teach other robots.

One last question: how will mankind survive?

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